Keeping It Human in a Digital World (4)

We do not know today where all this will ultimately lead us. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, has a sign on his desk that says “No one knows what happens next.” No one can predict how quickly these models will advance, how far we will take their capabilities, or what their downstream impacts will really be.

But what is clear is that whether we like the direction AI is taking us or not, dismissing it will only leave us vulnerable and unprepared for the future. By working to stay open to what this technology offers, we not only position ourselves to harness its capabilities more effectively but also gain the opportunity to shape its development in alignment with society’s values and needs.

This is not the first time in history we have faced disruption from machines, but because AI is exceptionally powerful, the transition ahead will assuredly be difficult and, at times, may even feel harrowing.

Notes

1 OpenAI, GPT-4 Technical Report, 2023 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774. 2 E. E. Guzik, C. Byrge, and C. Gilde, “The Originality of Machines: AI Takes the Torrance Test,” Artificial Intelligence in Medical Sciences, 4, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yjoc.2023.100065. 3 B. Lev and T. Sougiannis, “Ideas are Dimes a Dozen: Large Language Models for Idea Generation in Innovation,” Social Science Research Network, 2023, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4526071. 4 F. Salvi, M. H. Ribeiro, R. Gallotti, and R. West, “On the Conversational Persuasiveness of Large Language Models: A Randomized Controlled Trial,” 2024, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2403.14380. 5 A. Karthikesalingam and V. Natarajan, “AMIE: A research AI system for diagnostic medical reasoning and conversations,” Google Research Blog, January 12, 2024, https://research.google/blog/amie-a-research-ai-system-for-diagnostic-medical-reasoning-and-conversations/. 6 J. W. Ayers, A. Poliak, M. Dredze, et al, “Comparing Physician and Artificial Intelligence Chatbot Responses to Patient Questions Posted to a Public Social Media Forum,” JAMA Internal Medicine 183, 589–596, https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2804309. 7 Ethan Mollick, “Everyone is Above Average,” One Useful Thing, September 24, 2023. 8 Fabrizio Dell’Acqua, Edward McFowland III, Ethan R. Mollick, et al., “Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality,” Social Science Research Network, September 18, 2023, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4573321. 9 Shakked Noy and Whitney Zhang, “Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence,” March 10, 2023, https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/inline-files/Noy_Zhang_1_0.pdf. 10 Fabrizio Dell’Acqua, Edward McFowland III, Ethan R. Mollick, et al., “Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality,” Social Science Research Network, September 18. 2023, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4573321. 11 Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, and Lindsey Raymond, “Generative AI at Work,” National Bureau of Economic Research, October 9, 2023, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2304.11771.

9.A Cognitive Revolution Beyond Human Imagination

It was April of 1826. Mobs of angry workers and sympathetic villagers—sometimes swelling to 3,000 people—stormed textile mills armed with axes, pikes, and other makeshift weapons. Their target? The power looms that had been newly installed in the mills, machines that could dramatically increase textile production while requiring far fewer workers. Thousands of weavers were out of work, and many were starving. The arrival of these machines had vaporized the need for their expertise—obliterating their livelihoods and their ability to feed their families. The Power Loom Riots were an attempt to stop their world from changing beneath their feet.

It did not work.

Stories of pain, social disruption, and economic upheaval were common in the latter half of the 18th century, as technology advancements triggered a shift from an agrarian and handicraft economy to one dominated by machine manufacturing and industry. The new machine capabilities that fueled this transition—the Industrial Revolution—reshaped daily life and forged the foundation of our modern world. Many agricultural jobs vanished. Social dynamics were altered as people migrated en masse from rural to urban settings to work in new industrial production jobs. The accompanying expansion of trade, markets, and transportation networks led to growth, but the economic benefits were unevenly distributed. Against this backdrop, the social fabric frayed and crime surged.

From our modern vantage point, the Industrial Revolution unfolded in slow motion over eight decades. In retrospect, it can appear as if choreographed, each innovation leading logically to the next. But this is a trick of historical perspective. For those living through it, there was no grand narrative—only a disjointed series of personal upheavals. What we now recognize as an obvious and seismic shift was experienced as individual crisis moments: a lost job, a forced relocation, a new machine replacing skilled hands. The big picture, so clear to us now, was obscured by the immediacy of daily life in flux.

Transformation Can Hide Within Small Shifts

Our human brains struggle to see exponential change as it happens. We may see fragments of change—such as the dwindling job listings in a field we’ve long trained for—but struggle to connect these pieces to larger, systemic transformation.